I have been tracking this ETF along with a couple more ETFS such as KBE and KRE, they essentially have the same look from the Feb 2016 lows, along with many other US banking stocks such as CMA, BAC, JPM, PRU, USB to name a few. The current move from the Feb 2016 lows appears to suggest its inside an impulse wave, and the strong rally we have seen over the last few months since the US elections is likely a 3rd of 3rd wave. So I dont think the advance from the Feb 2016 lows is finished and I favor a few more gyrations to the upside before we can label a satisfactory 5 wave advance.

Currently I think its in wave 4 of [3], so as long as any weakness remains above 77.15 More upside is still favored as shown. Once we can count a large 5 wave rally from the Feb 2016 lows, its then that I will turn my attention to looking for selling opportunities, so unless the markets actually breakdown and we see the INDU and SPX really tank lower, the odds are still favoring more upside for many US banking stocks such as the ones listed above coupled with may of the financial ETFS such as KBE & KRE etc.

Once ETFS such as KBE & KRE and stocks like JPM & BAC appear completed from the Feb 2016 lows, its then that I think the market will finally put in a major top. So unless the market throws a seriously nasty curve ball and we see a sell off before those respective stocks have ended their advances from the Feb 2016 lows. We can expect more upside and subsequently should see more upside on the INDU.

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