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Elliott Analysis of GBPUSD

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This pair has been working well for us, i noticed many traders on twitter and social media sites still trying to justify that this pair would rally higher, but they failed to notice the link between EURUSD and GBPUSD had broken down

I was quick to notice that, and whilst its a great edge when we have strong correlations, price is still king and you must respect what you see

Currently it still looks like it needs a bounce (under 159 is OK) then a new low, its on that low that i suspect we see a better bounce

I am still targeting the 157-15715 area for the end of wave [iii] or [c], then the next bounce should help us confirmed if this pair is bearish as any bounce will be a 4th wave in the trend that started from 16378 and probably target around 15950

We have been using the 159-15950 area as a cluster to sell rallies, and i still think that will be the case into we see a 5 wave decline from 16378

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You can clearly see the support area, as like most times the markets simply travel from support to resistance, with the market firmly under the 200DMA it remains on a sell below 159, although i do expect the 157-15715 area to see a decent bounce, likely to be back to 15950 area for a suspected wave [iv]

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So where does that leave traders on the long term ideas?

Where if GBPUSD actually put in a higher and ended the long winded triangle, we would need to see a 5 wave decline, currently its only 3 waves, but it has the potential to become a 5 wave decline

If however it remained a 3 wave decline from 16378 and we saw an aggressive reversal back above 160, then it can suggest a move back above 16378 and target 168 to complete a large WXY correction

So this decline from 16378 is important as depending if its a 3 or 5 wave move will confirm the likely path going forward for the next 6-12 months

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Either way i am expecting some great trading in this pair, as long as it moves i can count it, if i can count it members can make $$$
To be there for the good times, you got to be there all the time - Ben Lichtenstein

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