Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

A quick update to the post on StockTwits:

The market has continued lower as I expected to see, a new low can complete an impulse wave (5 wave decline) from 11831, so if you are bullish this pair, then I favor it has a good setup to find buyers from a new low. So as the EURUSD moves into a new low, the DXY should make a new high and complete an impulse wave (5 wave rally) from 93.81 (Sept low), its then I want to find buyers on EURUSD and sellers on the DXY.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Boeing (BA)

Readers may be aware than Boeing (BA) is the biggest stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), so it makes sense to watch the biggest weighted stock to find an edge to the next likely direction of the DJIA.

The recent gyrations on Boeing appear to suggest thrust from a triangle, for Elliott wave users, that’s a key pattern as the look from the 2016 lows, appears to suggest an impulse wave is developing. So the triangle is a 4th wave of an impulse wave, the current spike is that of a 5th wave. However there are a couple of ways to label the current advance, so unless a strong reversal back below $372.64, then I would at least respect the potential for further upside as it may still be in wave 3 of the larger wave [5].

So it stands to reason, if Boeing continues to move higher, then its likely going to see the DJIA move higher, likewise, if Boeing is ending wave [5] for the alternative labeling, then a move back below $372.64 will likely see the DJIA move lower based on the weighting of Boeing.

BA

Alt Idea

DJIA

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Elliott Wave Analysis of TNX

It seems everyone and their dog is expecting a major breakout to the upside on yields, now I wouldn’t say it’s impossible as anything is possible, but generally whenever everyone is all geared up for one side of the trend, the other side can be a good bet if the conditions support that idea. In this case there is a potential bearish setup still possible on the 10 year yield (TNX).

If a strong reversal back below 3.050 is seen, then it could have the makings of a move lower and suggest the recent advance is that of a B wave of a flat pattern; however without any downside below 3.05 we don’t have any evidence to support a reversal and a move lower. If 10 year yields fail to breakout aggressively to the upside like the majority of traders think, then it can setup for a very nasty trap and argue for a decline back below 2.75 which would be a shock for most traders.

It’s time to watch yields, if they fail to rally like the majority think, then a strong reversal will likely see everyone bail on the “short bond trade”.

Elliott Wave Analysis of the SP-500 (SPX) Update

Going into the FOMC, there is a potential bearish setup as long as it remains below 2940, the decline from 2940 could be counted as a possible 5 wave decline as it’s got an impulsive look, we have also seen the SPX and INDU lag the rally on the NDX, so that’s a slight change of character to the market.

It could still push a little more upside and fill the gap, but as long as it remains below 2940, then I am still targeting more weakness, it’s a very tentative idea but like all moves, there is a starting point and whilst nothing has been confirmed, for aggressive traders, there is limited risk to 2940 as a stop.

Above 2940 is simply wrong. Considering the potential for a large breakdown based on this post: https://www.wavepatterntraders.com/elliott-wave-analysis-of-the-sp-500-spx/ then the risk/reward IMO greatly favors looking for entries to sell. Back in Jan 2018 you had a similar setup to what we have today, limited risk vs huge reward. Those are the types of odds I like to see.

Back in Feb 1st 2018 we had the same setup of a 5 wave decline, followed by a 3 wave bounce, we have a very similar setup today.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of the SP-500 (SPX)

The advance from the April lows is currently the focus for us, as I believe the orthodox low for wave [4] was made in April 2018, so we are trying to count an impulse wave (5 wave advance). With the sub-divisions from the April lows, we can now suggest there are enough gyrations in place to warrant some caution for the current bullish trend from those April lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also confirmed the SPX idea and made a new all-time high, so that’s now aligned all 3 markets NDX, SPX and the DJIA with the same impulse wave idea from the 2016 lows.

However in order to suggest a move lower we would still need to at least see a move back under 2885 to support further downside as there are a number of ways to label the move from 2863. My preferred idea is that wave 5 is now close to completion, although the more bullish case would suggest its only ending wave [iii] of wave 3. Either idea would still need a move back under 2885 to suggest more weakness. The next decline is key, as a 3 wave pullback that holds around 2850-2840 likely supports the more bullish idea. A much stronger/impulsive decline in 5 waves below 2800 would give more credence to the preferred idea.

Until we see a break under 2885, then the current trend remains up and the bulls have full control of the market at this stage. A small 5 wave decline below 2885 would be a subtle clue to potentially supporting a move lower. How the next decline develops will help decide if the market is going to continue far higher above 3050-3100.

Alt idea

Once the impulse wave from the April 2018 low is complete, that can also support the advance from the 2016 lows has ended a larger impulse wave. So an impulse wave at two degrees of trend would have ended and setup for a significant move lower.

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