Whilst there are enough gyrations to argue for a possible end to the trend from 1236, its not really done anything to derail the current rally, holding above 1310 can still argue for a small triangle for wave iv, or possibly it develops a small ending diagonal for wave v (wedge). There is still scope for a move above 1330 to end wave [a] of the larger wave [y].
A break back under 1310 should be enough to support more weakness and suggest wave [b] was likely in progress. Any weakness for wave [b] should prove corrective and remain above 1236, that can offer a bullish opportunity for members that want to jump on the trend. Bullish above 1236.
Short term a minor new high is ideally see to end 5 waves from 12744 to complete wave [c] of an expanded flat pattern for wave B, this idea makes more sense with the other markets such as the CAC and EURSTOXX, which are closely correlated markets to the DAX. Ideally any upside stays below 13400. If it starts to race away above 13400, then I think we seriously need to consider that wave  is underway. A strong move back under 13200 and then remains below 13200 is needed to support more weakness back below 12700.
A move lower for wave C to end wave  is still favored, a test of 12400 – 12600 is a good area to end wave C of wave  and setup for a move higher for wave . A move lower can also allow other European markets to correct and pullback and complete their respective 4th waves.
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The recent gyrations over the last 2 months I suspect could be ending an expanded flat. With an expanded flat the [b] wave moves above the origin of wave [a], but the move into the wave [b] highs is in 3 waves, that appears to be the case with this example, you can count 3 waves from 1.2622. If any upside stays below 1.2700, then I favor more weakness for a small 5th wave of wave [c] and develop 5 waves from 1.2919. Thats when I will turn more bullish.
I am also tracking another idea which suggests the low is in for the whole correction from 1.2914, but unless a strong move above 1.2700 allow for minor new lows. There is structural support at 1.2450 if needed to setup for a rally higher.
The recent gyrations could have ended a small ending diagonal, but unless it breaks down hard below yesterdays low, then there is the possibility of seeing a minor new high for an alternative ending diagonal idea I am watching.
If the current move is a variation of an ending diagonal, then I suspect its close to or has ended a 5th wave of a larger impulse wave from the Aug 2017 lows. Once the trend from the Aug 2017 lows has ended, things should start to get more volatile for both the YM and INDU. The SPX has a very similar pattern and the analysis is essentially the same with a few slight differences between the wave counts.
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