The choppy downside from the recent highs at 281.18 maybe arguing for a triangle for wave [iv], initially when I was looking for a dip for wave [iv], I expected it to be a deeper move towards 277.00, although the QQQs dipped lower for its wave [iv] from the NFLX earnings result, the ES/SPY failed to follow, which was a little disappointing, however the choppy weakness shown from 281.18 may still be supporting a triangle for wave [iv].
If any weakness fails to breakdown under 278.35, then there is still possibility we see further upside and new highs above 281.18 for wave [v]. Going into next week, the bears need to continue to push the market lower and break under 278.35 to support more weakness. Failure to move below 278.35 would support a triangle for wave [iv] and setup for new highs above 281.88 for wave [v] and complete an impulse wave from the Jun 2018 lows. Its then I would expect a reversal and move lower.
If the market has ideas about further weakness, then I would expect it to stay below 280.47, followed a breakdown under 278.35. Overall the market remains bullish whilst its above the Jun 2018 lows, if any larger breakdown is going to occur, then it needs a full retracement of the advance from the the Jun 2018 lows.
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